Sustainable Development Research of Organic Agricultural Ecosystem Based on System Dynamics Model

Abstract

The conversion of forests to agricultural ecosystems has become an increasingly prominent trend worldwide. Against this backdrop, this article employs system dynamics modeling to delve into the sustainable development pathways of organic agricultural ecosystems, aiming to provide valuable insights for practice and research in related fields. In order to explore the ecological stability of forests converted to agricultural land, based on ecological causality and food web theory, this article constructs a species dynamics model for the corn food chain,  analyzes the changes in species numbers before and after the use of pesticides and herbicides, and finds that chemical agents benefit agriculture in the short term, but destroy the ecological balance in the long term. In order to study the impact of species recolonization, this article elucidated relevant indicators and models, analyzed the trend of indicators after the introduction of soybeans and stinkbugs, and came to the conclusion that soybeans help to improve the stability and stinkbugs destabilize the ecological balance in the short term. Exploring the impacts of human decision-making, it was found that discontinuing the use of herbicides improved stability and biodiversity, and that the introduction of bats was more effective than that of gray starlings. The innovation of this study lies in constructing system dynamics models and differential equations to comprehensively analyze the impacts of multiple factors, accurately distinguish the roles of different species in different stages, propose and evaluate specific organic agricultural strategies, thereby providing a scientific basis for the sustainable development of agricultural ecosystems.